Great Bend Tribune
Published February 24, 2019
Another stormy round of weather this weekend seems to be becoming almost normal. Is this an unusual winter weather pattern? Is this becoming the new normal we should come to expect? Is this weather an indication of our summer weather pattern? Since it’s colder and snowier than normal, doesn’t this mean global warming and climate change don’t exist? While it’s not possible to cover these topics in great detail, let’s see if we can shed some light on this situation. Apologies in advance are due to weather junkies for the simplifications.
Is this an unusual weather pattern? Yes and no. It is unusual after the last few winters that were quite dry and overall mild. However, if you check long-term records, it isn’t. Two factors are at work. Drier, milder winters tend to occur when a La Nina occurs of the Pacific coast of South America. Winters like this are more likely when an El Nino occurs. These events vary in intensity and duration. A compounding factor is the dipping of the Polar Vortex down below polar latitudes. This used to be rare but with an increasing lack of sea ice near the North Pole during summer and increased warming, it is a more common occurrence. Last year cold blasted the other side of the planet more than North America. This year’s record cold was focused just north of Kansas and east.
One other factor plays a major role in our winter weather – the Jet Stream. This river of air above thirty-thousand feet in altitude moves from west to east around the globe. When it flows pretty much west to east, without big dips and crests, our weather tends to be less active and much less stormy. This “zonal” pattern was typical of the last few winters. This year, it looks much more like a rollercoaster ride with peaks and valleys. This “high amplitude” pattern has resulted in this active weather pattern. Storms arrive at the West Coast, dip down through the Four Corners region and then make a beeline for our area. With the counterclockwise flow around the low, it is able to bring up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Voila, we have moisture, temperature gradients, more wind and stormy weather. The key to the “weather” where you are at is a matter of the track of the low pressure. Fifty miles east or west makes a huge difference and makes weather forecasting tricky at best.
Is this pattern an indication of our summer weather pattern? No, Mary Knapp, State Climatologist at K-State has examine record in detail and it is hard to correlate winter to summer weather and vice-versa. While patterns establish themselves, they also change from time to time.
Yes, climate change and global temperature increases are still there. It is GLOBAL warming, not U.S., Kansas, or Great Bend warming. Secondly, this kind of weather is pretty accurately predicted by computer modelling. Also, these models have indicated an increase in the extremes of our weather, i.e. higher highs, lower lows, drier droughts, and wetter periods. Finally, look around the globe and you can find plenty of heat and drought.
Stay safe and warm. Spring will eventually arrive.