Great Bend Tribune
Part I
Published May 3, 2020
The Drought Monitor report continues to indicate intensification in extreme Southwest Kansas Much of Northwest Kansas in now considered extremely dry. Our area is becoming drier but as of Tuesday, April 28 was rated fine. The abnormally dry conditions are as close as northwestern Rush County. Also appearing is a swath of abnormally dry counties just to the north of Barton County. The six to ten day outlook (May 5 to 9) indicates above normal to slightly below normal temperatures, except above average for extreme western Kansas and normal to slightly below normal precipitation for the state. This should benefit the planting of spring crops but some rain would be welcome. Looking out eight to fourteen days (May 7 to 13) indicates normal precipitation and normal to below normal temperatures. The thirty day outlook (May) is still calling for of equal chances of below or above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with the ninety day (May through August) outlook predicting equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Reports of damage to the wheat crop are all over the map depending on where you are in Barton County. Some reports, particularly as you go northwest from Great bend, are indicating severe damage with lesser damage as you move to the southeast. Time will tell the tale. Some fields that appear fine may exhibit damage as the weather warms and/or heads emerge. Some wheat that appears severely damaged may still produce some wheat from later tillers.
Today, let’s briefly discuss our modern food production system. The news is full of stories regarding illness and meatpacking plants, produce rotting in the fields, euthanized hogs, and dumping of milk. There are predictions of food interruptions and shortages, many from the industry. This has fostered discussions regarding our food production and delivery system. There isn’t enough room here to go in depth but it might be helpful to examine it in an objective way. Before we start though, keep in mind that while there may be brief, spot shortages or a lack of selection, there will be food on the shelves. Today, why do we have the system we have?
Whether meat or poultry, traditional farm crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, or your fruits and vegetables, we have developed an industrial model for food production. Why?
- In a country of over three hundred million, only a few million are involved in the producing foodstuffs and processing them for a variety of social and economic reasons. How do you produce a safe, sustainable, affordable food supply with a small percentage of the population? Through specialization and technology modern agriculture is able to increase production of all foodstuffs. By specializing, producers and processors more efficiently use resources and become “experts” in production and processing. Included is the idea of “economy of scale” where cost advantages occur when production becomes efficient. Producers and processors achieve economies of scale through increasing production and lowering costs. This idea is that costs are spread over a larger number of goods, especially fixed costs such as land and equipment. The larger the business, the more the cost savings are incurred and the cost of production per unit decreases. And it allows more power in terms of buying inputs and selling outputs.
- Technology comes into play for two major reasons. First, technology is cheaper than labor. Second, technology allows producers and processors to do one of the following: produce more with the same level of inputs or produce the same level of output with fewer inputs thus increasing efficiency. It also has the added advantage of requiring fewer, well-trained, more highly paid labor. Why do we have large scale hog, poultry, dairy, and feed yard operations? Simply, fewer skilled workers are needed and it is easier to obtain a uniform product as quickly as possible.
Next week: What difficulties does this model present, what can be done to help overcome these challenges, and our global agricultural system.
Part II - The Food Chain Dilemma
Published May 10, 2020
The Drought Monitor report continues to indicate intensification in extreme Southwest Kansas. Much of western Kansas in now considered abnormally dry and the spotty rain this last week likely did little to change that. The six to ten day outlook (May 13 to 17) indicates temperatures well below normal, and above normal precipitation for the state. Looking out eight to fourteen days (May 15 to 21) indicates slightly above normal precipitation and normal temperatures. The thirty day outlook (June) is predicting normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation.
Anecdotal wheat damage reports indicates insurance adjusters have zeroed out some fields in the northwest part of the county and there are other reports of significant frost damage to developing heads. Some fields appear normal. Part of this wide variation is due to location and topography and some due to some wide variations in planting dates. A significant concern now is the need for rainfall as many fields are exhibiting drought stress and need rain as the flower and set seed.
Last week’s column briefly discussed how our food system is set up and why. Especially the concentration and specialization involved in food production combined with the adoption of technology and the development of essentially a production line model of food stuffs. This week, why we experience the actual and/or perceived disruptions of foodstuffs. Remember, we have two major differences here – perishable versus nonperishable products and their processing and the amount of time it takes to produce these commodities.
First, let’s consider the more perishable commodities such as many fruits and vegetables along with some dairy products. These are separate from types of these commodities like cheese, butter, apples, potatoes, etc. we can keep for much longer periods of time.
- Fortunately, the turnaround time on these is fairly quick so they can be constantly produced. Items such as milk, lettuce, etc. However, items such as many fruits and vegetables are produced outside the U.S. – Mexico, along with Central and South America. The disruption here is possible from two sources. Before Covid-19, many of the perishable commodities were rotting in the field due to a lack of workers. This was exacerbated by the pandemic and immigration regulations. The second factor is the effect of the pandemic on countries where we obtain these foodstuffs along with some disruptions in the transportation chain. Planting has also been disrupted in some cases. The upside here is that many stocks can be planted and brought back online fairly quickly.
Now, what about items such as meat and poultry?
- Beef is quite separate from the other proteins due to its time to produce and the ability of beef producers to “hold on” to their product. Poultry and pork producers have a rapid turnaround time and an exacting time schedule from birth to essentially the exact day for harvest. While beef producers can work around delays somewhat better, to wait before slaughter, pork and poultry aren’t.
- All of this is exacerbated by concentration of the meat and poultry processing industry. Four packers/processors control the vast majority of the market. And relative to the amount processed, there are relatively few plants to process all this livestock. So when a plant or plants go down it has a disproportionate effect on supply temporarily. Three or processing plants going down all at once or having to slow down, at least regionally, disrupts meat supplies.
- Some have argued, they should just send livestock to smaller, local, facilities. The issue here is that there are relatively few of those left and they aren’t able to handle anywhere near this kind of volume.
- Finally, we aren’t set up with the capacity to store meat and poultry long-term after processing. People like fresh product for one thing. And much of our food supply chain is set up on a “just in time model” for supply and delivery for a variety of reasons.
To summarize, there are problems and challenges with our food supply system. These can cause disruptions/interruptions in food supplies. However, there will be food on the shelves even if the selection isn’t what you may wish. And the problem will diminish over time as the industry adapts to these conditions. Not panic buying would also help as there is no reason to .