Great Bend Tribune
Published January 1, 2023
The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, December 27 indicates the area of exceptional drought slowly expanding east and north from Western and South-Central Kansas. Our extreme drought conditions continue with exceptional drought as close as eastern Rush and Pawnee Counties. The six to ten-day outlook (January 3 to 7) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of above normal temperatures and normal to slightly above normal precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (January 5 to 11) indicates a continued 50 to 60% of above normal temperatures and normal to slightly above normal precipitation.
First, a Happy New Year to all. This is a time for resolutions and plans from diets and working out in the gym to new careers and goals for the year. It’s also a time for producers to seriously think about the upcoming cropping season. What makes this so challenging compared to other years is the drought situation producers find themselves in. Most of Western and South-Central Kansas are in extreme or exceptional drought without much hope lurking on the horizon for at least several months. The wheat crop in our area actually looks better than it has any right to. The extreme lack of soil moisture presents an enigma for spring planted crops. While input prices have backed off some, they are still high. Even with crop insurance and higher commodity prices, net farm income won’t be great for many. Those with cattle are facing higher feed costs, a lack of pasture, and increasing supplemental feeding with a lack of quality forages to feed for many. How can this be dealt with? Crops will be planted. Cows will calve. The goal has to be to examine conditions and the long-range forecast and figure out how to optimize production within conditions and finances. What is a realistic yield goal? What should be planted or not planted. And yet have a enough flexibility to adapt to changing conditions, especially if conditions improve markedly. Here are a few suggestions among many.
- Soil test – find out what is in the soil, especially phosphorus and for some potassium. With the lack of moisture and yield in many fields, as we approach plating season see what the profile nitrogen level are. Don’t pay for fertilizer you don’t need.
- For wheat, hold off as long as practical on herbicide and fertilizer application. Most fields will need nitrogen but hold off as long as possible to evaluate stands. Herbicides are tougher as herbicides are even more important with thin stands.
- Determine summer row crops. Are soybeans and corn too risker or does the long-term outlook present opportunities? Would grain sorghum fit better? Would summer forages make more sense and entail less risk? Then consider plant populations and a realistic yield based upon expected conditions and fertilizer for that. Selecting a hybrid/variety that may not bust bins but have the best chance to produce an economic yield under tough conditions.
- Finally, two more things are important. Weed control, while expensive is more important than ever under dry conditions. And related to that, how can we hold onto the soil moisture we have and will receive. Residue cover and minimizing/eliminating tillage if possible can help. However, if the ground is dry and hard as a rock, that may not be a viable option.